Who is predicted to win Derby County FC vs Southampton FC?

Our AI model predicts Away win (41% probability). The home/draw/away split is 32% / 27% / 41%.

What is the predicted score for Derby County FC vs Southampton FC?

The most likely scoreline from the SwiftScore model is 1-1 (13%), from projected expected goals of 1.42–1.54.

Will both teams score in Derby County FC vs Southampton FC?

Both teams to score: Yes 61%, No 39%. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 57%.

How confident is SwiftScore in this Derby County FC vs Southampton FC prediction?

SwiftScore rates this call 43.4/100. Every prediction is locked before kick-off and graded against the real result on our public accuracy page.

Derby County FC vs Southampton FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 6 Feb, 12:00

Derby County FC

1–1 Predicted · 12:00

Southampton FC

Match result prediction

Home 32%

Draw 27%

Away 41%

💡 Southampton FC have a slight edge — leaning Southampton FC, but it's close.

Our pickAway win

SwiftScore Low · 43.4/100

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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited

SwiftScore 43.4

/100 confidence

Power Rating 1562 v 1652 Southampton rated higher

Form Index LWLWL v WDWDW Derby County 1.2 · Southampton 2.2 ppg

Model Consensus 100%

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Why we predict this

Southampton FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1652 vs 1562).
Southampton FC is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game).
All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating

Southampton

Form Index

Southampton

Goal expectation

Southampton

Home advantage

Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Southampton. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)

Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg

SouthamptonWDWDW2.2 ppg

Power Rating

Derby County1562

Southampton1652

Model Consensus (home/draw/away)

Goals model34% · 27% · 39%

Power Rating35% · 25% · 40%

Machine-learning27% · 29% · 44%

AI match preview

Derby County FC hosts Southampton FC in a Championship clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 41%, though a draw remains a plausible 27% outcome. Both sides are projected to score, with a 61% chance for both teams to find the net and an expected goals tally close to 1.5 each, suggesting an open contest. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, while over 2.5 goals has a moderate 57% probability—remember, these projections are statistical estimates and betting should be done responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.54

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 57%

Under 43%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Southampton FC 2–1 Derby County FC

Oct 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Southampton FC