Birmingham City FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 13 Feb, 12:00
Birmingham City FC
1–1 Predicted · 12:00
Derby County FC

Match result prediction

Home 37%
Draw 31%
Away 32%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 38.9/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.9
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1517 v 1562 Derby County rated higher
Form Index LWWWD v LWLWL Birmingham 2.0 · Derby County 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1517).
  • Birmingham City FC is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Birmingham
Goal expectation
Birmingham
Home advantage
Birmingham

Green = favours Birmingham · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
BirminghamLWWWD2.0 ppg
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Birmingham1517
Derby County1562
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model43% · 30% · 27%
Power Rating40% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning29% · 37% · 34%

AI match preview

Birmingham City and Derby County are projected to battle closely in this Championship clash, with a draw slightly favored at 31% and an expected 1-1 scoreline. The model suggests a moderate chance of both teams scoring (52%) and a sub-50% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, indicating a potentially tight, low-scoring encounter. These statistical projections offer insights but remember to gamble responsibly and only bet if you are 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.07

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 45%

Under 55%

Both teams to score

Yes 52%

No 48%

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Derby County FC 1–0 Birmingham City FC
Dec 2025 Birmingham City FC 1–1 Derby County FC