Wrexham AFC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 27 Feb, 12:00
Wrexham AFC
1–1 Predicted · 12:00
Derby County FC

Match result prediction

Home 37%
Draw 25%
Away 38%

💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 38.4/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1549 v 1562 Derby County rated higher
Form Index LLWWD v LWLWL Wrexham 1.4 · Derby County 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1549 vs 1562).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Wrexham
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Wrexham

Green = favours Wrexham · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
WrexhamLLWWD1.4 ppg
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Wrexham1549
Derby County1562
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 25% · 47%
Power Rating45% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning39% · 27% · 34%

AI match preview

Wrexham AFC and Derby County FC face off in a closely matched Championship encounter, with the model slightly favoring an away win at 38% probability over a 37% chance for a home victory. The expected goals suggest a tight contest with 1.38 for Wrexham and 1.85 for Derby, while the most likely score remains a 1-1 draw. With a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and 64% probability both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an open game, though these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.85

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 64%

No 36%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Derby County FC 1–2 Wrexham AFC
Sept 2025 Wrexham AFC 1–1 Derby County FC