Who is predicted to win Derby County FC vs Charlton Athletic FC?

Our AI model predicts Home win (59% probability). The home/draw/away split is 59% / 21% / 20%.

What is the predicted score for Derby County FC vs Charlton Athletic FC?

The most likely scoreline from the SwiftScore model is 1-0 (16%), from projected expected goals of 1.32–0.72.

Will both teams score in Derby County FC vs Charlton Athletic FC?

Both teams to score: Yes 39%, No 61%. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 33%.

How confident is SwiftScore in this Derby County FC vs Charlton Athletic FC prediction?

SwiftScore rates this call 69.3/100. Every prediction is locked before kick-off and graded against the real result on our public accuracy page.

Derby County FC vs Charlton Athletic FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 6 Mar, 12:00

Derby County FC

1–0 Predicted · 12:00

Charlton Athletic FC

Match result prediction

Home 59%

Draw 21%

Away 20%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 59 times in 100.

Our pickHome win

SwiftScore Medium · 69.3/100

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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited

SwiftScore 69.3

/100 confidence

Power Rating 1562 v 1435 Derby County rated higher

Form Index LWLWL v LDLDL Derby County 1.2 · Charlton 0.4 ppg

Model Consensus 100%

models back the pick

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Why we predict this

Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1435).
Derby County FC is in clearly better recent form (1.2 vs 0.4 pts/game).
Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.3 expected goals).
All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating

Derby County

Form Index

Derby County

Goal expectation

Derby County

Home advantage

Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Charlton. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)

Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg

CharltonLDLDL0.4 ppg

Power Rating

Derby County1562

Charlton1435

Model Consensus (home/draw/away)

Goals model49% · 32% · 19%

Power Rating66% · 12% · 22%

Machine-learning61% · 21% · 18%

AI match preview

Derby County FC enters this Championship clash with a 59% probability of securing a home win against Charlton Athletic FC, with the model favoring a tight 1-0 scoreline. The expected goals tally suggests Derby's attack has a slight edge at 1.32 compared to Charlton's 0.72, while the chances of over 2.5 goals or both teams scoring remain relatively low. These projections highlight Derby as favorites, but as always, outcomes can vary—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.32 – 0.72

Most likely score

1-0

16% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 33%

Under 67%

Both teams to score

Yes 39%

No 61%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Charlton Athletic FC 1–2 Derby County FC

Sept 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Charlton Athletic FC