Watford FC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 13 Mar, 12:00
Watford FC
1–1 Predicted · 12:00
Derby County FC

Match result prediction

Home 31%
Draw 27%
Away 41%

💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 44.1/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1451 v 1562 Derby County rated higher
Form Index DLLLL v LWLWL Watford 0.2 · Derby County 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1451).
  • Derby County FC is in clearly better recent form (1.2 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Derby County
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Watford

Green = favours Watford · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
WatfordDLLLL0.2 ppg
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Watford1451
Derby County1562
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 30% · 37%
Power Rating34% · 23% · 44%
Machine-learning27% · 30% · 44%

AI match preview

Watford FC host Derby County FC in a closely contested Championship clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 41%, though a draw remains a strong possibility with a 27% chance. Both sides are projected to score around 1.2 to 1.3 goals each, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline despite the away win pick. With just over half the games expected to see both teams scoring and under a 50% chance for more than 2.5 goals, this match could hinge on tight margins—remember, these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.30

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 46%

Under 54%

Both teams to score

Yes 53%

No 47%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Watford FC 2–0 Derby County FC
Nov 2025 Derby County FC 2–3 Watford FC