Middlesbrough FC vs Southampton FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 13 Mar, 12:00
Middlesbrough FC
1–1 Predicted · 12:00
Southampton FC

Match result prediction

Home 38%
Draw 29%
Away 33%

💡 Middlesbrough FC have a slight edge — leaning Middlesbrough FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 39.3/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.3
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1581 v 1652 Southampton rated higher
Form Index WWDDL v WDWDW Middlesbrough 1.6 · Southampton 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Southampton FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1652 vs 1581).
  • Southampton FC is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.6 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.6 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Southampton
Form Index
Southampton
Goal expectation
Middlesbrough
Home advantage
Middlesbrough

Green = favours Middlesbrough · Blue = favours Southampton. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MiddlesbroughWWDDL1.6 ppg
SouthamptonWDWDW2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Middlesbrough1581
Southampton1652
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 28% · 23%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning28% · 33% · 38%

AI match preview

Middlesbrough FC host Southampton FC in a Championship clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 38% chance of victory, while a draw and away win are also plausible outcomes. The expected goals suggest a modest attacking edge for Middlesbrough (1.60 vs. 1.02), yet the most probable final score is a 1-1 stalemate. With just under half the games going over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate a competitive and balanced encounter; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.02

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 48%

Under 52%

Both teams to score

Yes 52%

No 48%

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Season averages (per game · last 130+ matches)

MiddlesbroughSouthampton
6.0 Corners 5.8
1.6 Cards 2.1
9.8 Fouls 10.7

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Southampton FC 2–1 Middlesbrough FC
May 2026 Middlesbrough FC 0–0 Southampton FC
Jan 2026 Middlesbrough FC 4–0 Southampton FC
Sept 2025 Southampton FC 1–1 Middlesbrough FC