Derby County FC vs Middlesbrough FC Prediction

Championship · Tue 16 Mar, 12:00
Derby County FC
1–1 Predicted · 12:00
Middlesbrough FC

Match result prediction

Home 39%
Draw 27%
Away 35%

💡 Derby County FC have a slight edge — leaning Derby County FC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 39.5/100
Confirm you are 18+ to see betting odds and value Predictions, probabilities and stats stay free for everyone.
🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1562 v 1581 Middlesbrough rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v WWDDL Derby County 1.2 · Middlesbrough 1.6 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby County v Middlesbrough

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

📺 Guess the VAR — how many VAR checks in this match?

Loading the crowd's guesses…

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1562 vs 1581).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Middlesbrough
Form Index
Middlesbrough
Goal expectation
Middlesbrough
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Middlesbrough. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
MiddlesbroughWWDDL1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1562
Middlesbrough1581
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model32% · 31% · 37%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning40% · 27% · 34%

AI match preview

Derby County FC and Middlesbrough FC face off in a closely matched Championship encounter, with the model giving a slight edge to Derby at 39% to win, while a draw or Middlesbrough victory remain well within reach. The expected goals are tight, suggesting a competitive game likely to produce around two to three goals, with a 51% chance both teams will score. Fans should note these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.26

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 43%

Under 57%

Both teams to score

Yes 51%

No 49%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Derby County FC 1–0 Middlesbrough FC
Nov 2025 Middlesbrough FC 2–1 Derby County FC