Swansea City AFC vs Derby County FC Prediction

Championship · Sat 17 Apr, 13:00
Swansea City AFC
1–1 Predicted · 13:00
Derby County FC

Match result prediction

Home 41%
Draw 28%
Away 31%

💡 Swansea City AFC have a slight edge — leaning Swansea City AFC, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.5/100
Confirm you are 18+ to see betting odds and value Predictions, probabilities and stats stay free for everyone.
🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1561 v 1562 Derby County rated higher
Form Index WLWDW v LWLWL Swansea 2.0 · Derby County 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Swansea v Derby County

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

📺 Guess the VAR — how many VAR checks in this match?

Loading the crowd's guesses…

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1561 vs 1562).
  • Swansea City AFC is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Swansea
Goal expectation
Swansea
Home advantage
Swansea

Green = favours Swansea · Blue = favours Derby County. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
SwanseaWLWDW2.0 ppg
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Swansea1561
Derby County1562
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model39% · 30% · 31%
Power Rating47% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning37% · 33% · 31%

AI match preview

Swansea City AFC and Derby County FC are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model giving a slight edge to Swansea at 41% to win compared to Derby's 31%, while a draw holds a 28% probability. Expected goals are tight, 1.34 for Swansea and 1.19 for Derby, suggesting a low-scoring affair, with 1-1 the most likely scoreline. There is a moderate chance for both teams to score (53%) and for the match to exceed 2.5 goals (46%), but these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.19

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 46%

Under 54%

Both teams to score

Yes 53%

No 47%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Derby County FC 2–0 Swansea City AFC
Nov 2025 Swansea City AFC 1–2 Derby County FC