Derby County FC vs Portsmouth FC Prediction

Championship · Tue 20 Apr, 13:00
Derby County FC
1–1 Predicted · 13:00
Portsmouth FC

Match result prediction

Home 54%
Draw 22%
Away 25%

💡 Derby County FC are favourites — about 54 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 61.5/100
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🔒 Locked 26 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 61.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1562 v 1503 Derby County rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v DWWWD Derby County 1.2 · Portsmouth 2.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby County v Portsmouth

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Loading the crowd's guesses…

Why we predict this

  • Derby County FC is the stronger side on Power Rating (1562 vs 1503).
  • Portsmouth FC is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby County
Form Index
Portsmouth
Goal expectation
Derby County
Home advantage
Derby County

Green = favours Derby County · Blue = favours Portsmouth. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Derby CountyLWLWL1.2 ppg
PortsmouthDWWWD2.2 ppg
Power Rating
Derby County1562
Portsmouth1503
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 30% · 21%
Power Rating56% · 16% · 28%
Machine-learning55% · 20% · 25%

AI match preview

Derby County FC are modest favorites at 54% to secure a home win against Portsmouth FC, with the model assigning a 61.5/100 confidence level to this outcome. Expected goals suggest a 1.44 to 0.87 advantage for Derby, yet the most likely scoreline remains a balanced 1-1 draw. With under 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 46%, this match could be tightly contested; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.44 – 0.87

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 41%

Under 59%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Portsmouth FC 0–1 Derby County FC
Dec 2025 Derby County FC 1–1 Portsmouth FC