St Pauli vs Hamburg Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Fri 23 Jan, 19:30
St Pauli
00 Full time
Hamburg
St Pauli 0–0 Hamburg

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Draw (30%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 37%
Draw 30%
Away 33%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 38.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1408 v 1451 Hamburg rated higher
Form Index DWDLL v WLDLD St Pauli 1.0 · Hamburg 1.0 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Hamburg is the stronger side on Power Rating (1451 vs 1408).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.6 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Hamburg
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
St Pauli
Home advantage
St Pauli

Green = favours St Pauli · Blue = favours Hamburg. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
St PauliDWDLL1.0 ppg
HamburgWLDLD1.0 ppg
Power Rating
St Pauli1408
Hamburg1451
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 28% · 23%
Power Rating40% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning35% · 30% · 35%

AI match preview

St Pauli and Hamburg are set for a closely contested Bundesliga clash with the model giving a slight edge to St Pauli at 37%, but a draw remains the most probable outcome at 30%. With expected goals favoring the home side 1.56 to 1.01 and a 52% chance both teams score, a tight 1-1 draw looks to be the likeliest scenario. Over 2.5 goals has a near-even 47% probability, suggesting a moderately open game; remember these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.01

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 47%

Under 53%

Both teams to score

Yes 52%

No 48%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 St Pauli 0–0 Hamburg
Aug 2025 Hamburg 0–2 St Pauli