Dortmund vs Mainz Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Fri 13 Feb, 19:30
Dortmund
40 Full time
Mainz
Dortmund 4–0 Mainz

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (66%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 66%
Draw 18%
Away 16%

💡 Dortmund are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 79.2/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 79.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1637 v 1471 Dortmund rated higher
Form Index WWWWW v WLWWW Dortmund 3.0 · Mainz 2.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Dortmund is the stronger side on Power Rating (1637 vs 1471).
  • Dortmund is in clearly better recent form (3.0 vs 2.4 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Dortmund
Form Index
Dortmund
Goal expectation
Dortmund
Home advantage
Dortmund

Green = favours Dortmund · Blue = favours Mainz. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
DortmundWWWWW3.0 ppg
MainzWLWWW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Dortmund1637
Mainz1471
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model70% · 19% · 11%
Power Rating70% · 12% · 19%
Machine-learning85% · 7% · 8%

AI match preview

Dortmund enters this Bundesliga clash with a strong 66% probability of securing a home win against Mainz, supported by an expected goals margin of 2.36 to 0.87. The model suggests a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely outcome, with a 63% chance of the match seeing over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams find the net. These projections offer a statistical insight into the game, but remember to gamble responsibly and only bet if you're 18 or older.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.36 – 0.87

Most likely score

2-0

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 54%

No 46%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Dortmund 4–0 Mainz
Sept 2025 Mainz 0–2 Dortmund