Hamburg vs Union Berlin Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sat 14 Feb, 14:30
Hamburg
32 Full time
Union Berlin
Hamburg 3–2 Union Berlin

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 28%
Away 28%

💡 Hamburg have a slight edge — leaning Hamburg, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 48.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 48.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1473 v 1466 Hamburg rated higher
Form Index LDDDW v DDLLD Hamburg 1.2 · Union Berlin 0.6 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1473 vs 1466).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.5 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Hamburg
Goal expectation
Hamburg
Home advantage
Hamburg

Green = favours Hamburg · Blue = favours Union Berlin. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HamburgLDDDW1.2 ppg
Union BerlinDDLLD0.6 ppg
Power Rating
Hamburg1473
Union Berlin1466
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model51% · 29% · 21%
Power Rating48% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning43% · 28% · 28%

AI match preview

Hamburg hosts Union Berlin in a Bundesliga clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 44%, though a draw or away victory both hold 28% probability. Expected goals suggest a modest edge to Hamburg (1.53 vs. 0.90), but the most likely scoreline remains 1-1, reflecting a competitive encounter. With under 2.5 goals and both teams to score probabilities just under 50%, this match could hinge on tight margins—remember these projections are statistical estimates and please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.53 – 0.90

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 44%

Under 56%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Hamburg 3–2 Union Berlin
Sept 2025 Union Berlin 0–0 Hamburg