Mainz vs Hamburg Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Fri 20 Feb, 19:30
Mainz
11 Full time
Hamburg
Mainz 1–1 Hamburg

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (45%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 45%
Draw 27%
Away 28%

💡 Mainz have a slight edge — leaning Mainz, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 49.7/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 49.7
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1463 v 1482 Hamburg rated higher
Form Index LWWWL v DDDWW Mainz 1.8 · Hamburg 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Mainz v Hamburg

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1463 vs 1482).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.3 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Hamburg
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Mainz
Home advantage
Mainz

Green = favours Mainz · Blue = favours Hamburg. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MainzLWWWL1.8 ppg
HamburgDDDWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Mainz1463
Hamburg1482
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model49% · 33% · 18%
Power Rating44% · 23% · 34%
Machine-learning41% · 27% · 32%

AI match preview

Mainz hold a slight edge over Hamburg with a 45% chance of securing a home win, supported by an expected goals tally of 1.26 versus Hamburg's 0.68. The model projects a tight contest, most likely finishing 1-0, with a moderate probability for both teams to score at 37% and a low chance for over 2.5 goals at 31%. These projections highlight a closely fought match, but remember these are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.26 – 0.68

Most likely score

1-0

17% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 31%

Under 69%

Both teams to score

Yes 37%

No 63%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Mainz 1–1 Hamburg
Oct 2025 Hamburg 4–0 Mainz