RB Leipzig vs Dortmund Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sat 21 Feb, 17:30
RB Leipzig
22 Full time
Dortmund
RB Leipzig 2–2 Dortmund

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (39%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 39%
Draw 25%
Away 36%

💡 RB Leipzig have a slight edge — leaning RB Leipzig, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 39.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1546 v 1645 Dortmund rated higher
Form Index WDLWD v WWWWW RB Leipzig 1.6 · Dortmund 3.0 ppg
Model Consensus 0%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Dortmund is the stronger side on Power Rating (1645 vs 1546).
  • Dortmund is in clearly better recent form (3.0 vs 1.6 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Dortmund
Form Index
Dortmund
Goal expectation
Dortmund
Home advantage
RB Leipzig

Green = favours RB Leipzig · Blue = favours Dortmund. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
RB LeipzigWDLWD1.6 ppg
DortmundWWWWW3.0 ppg
Power Rating
RB Leipzig1546
Dortmund1645
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model33% · 26% · 42%
Power Rating34% · 24% · 42%
Machine-learning23% · 28% · 49%

AI match preview

RB Leipzig host Dortmund in a tightly contested Bundesliga clash where the model gives a slight edge to the home side with a 39% chance of victory, while a draw and away win stand close behind at 25% and 36% respectively. Both teams are projected to find the net, with a 66% probability of BTTS and an expected goals tally suggesting a competitive 1-1 finish as the most likely scoreline. Over 2.5 goals is anticipated in 63% of simulations, indicating a potentially open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.74

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 63%

Under 37%

Both teams to score

Yes 66%

No 34%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Red Bull Arena Leipzig, Germany Capacity 47,069 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 RB Leipzig 2–2 Dortmund
Oct 2025 Dortmund 1–1 RB Leipzig