St Pauli vs Werder Bremen Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sun 22 Feb, 16:30
St Pauli
21 Full time
Werder Bremen
St Pauli 2–1 Werder Bremen

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (39%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 39%
Draw 29%
Away 32%

💡 St Pauli have a slight edge — leaning St Pauli, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 40.8/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.8
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1407 v 1412 Werder Bremen rated higher
Form Index DDLWL v LLDLL St Pauli 1.0 · Werder Bremen 0.2 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on St Pauli v Werder Bremen

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1407 vs 1412).
  • St Pauli is in clearly better recent form (1.0 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
St Pauli
Goal expectation
St Pauli
Home advantage
St Pauli

Green = favours St Pauli · Blue = favours Werder Bremen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
St PauliDDLWL1.0 ppg
Werder BremenLLDLL0.2 ppg
Power Rating
St Pauli1407
Werder Bremen1412
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model39% · 30% · 31%
Power Rating46% · 22% · 33%
Machine-learning43% · 32% · 25%

AI match preview

St Pauli and Werder Bremen are set for a tightly contested Bundesliga clash, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 39% probability and a confidence level of 40.8/100. Both teams are expected to score around 1.3 and 1.2 goals respectively, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With a 52% chance of both teams scoring and a 45% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, this match promises a competitive encounter; remember these projections are statistical estimates and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.32 – 1.17

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 45%

Under 55%

Both teams to score

Yes 52%

No 48%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 St Pauli 2–1 Werder Bremen
Oct 2025 Werder Bremen 1–0 St Pauli