Freiburg vs Leverkusen Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sat 7 Mar, 14:30
Freiburg
33 Full time
Leverkusen
Freiburg 3–3 Leverkusen

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 33%
Draw 28%
Away 39%

💡 Leverkusen have a slight edge — leaning Leverkusen, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 40.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1490 v 1559 Leverkusen rated higher
Form Index LWLWL v DWLDW Freiburg 1.2 · Leverkusen 1.6 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Freiburg v Leverkusen

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Why we predict this

  • Leverkusen is the stronger side on Power Rating (1559 vs 1490).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Leverkusen
Form Index
Leverkusen
Goal expectation
Freiburg
Home advantage
Freiburg

Green = favours Freiburg · Blue = favours Leverkusen. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FreiburgLWLWL1.2 ppg
LeverkusenDWLDW1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Freiburg1490
Leverkusen1559
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 27% · 29%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning25% · 30% · 45%

AI match preview

Freiburg host Leverkusen in a Bundesliga clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 39%, though a draw remains a strong possibility with a 28% chance. Expected goals suggest a tight contest (1.65 for Freiburg, 1.32 for Leverkusen), with 1-1 emerging as the most likely scoreline. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are moderately probable outcomes, so fans should anticipate a competitive match. These projections are based on statistical models—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.32

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 57%

Under 43%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Europa-Park Stadion Freiburg, Germany Capacity 34,700 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Freiburg 3–3 Leverkusen
Oct 2025 Leverkusen 2–0 Freiburg