St Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sun 22 Mar, 16:30
St Pauli
12 Full time
Freiburg
St Pauli 1–2 Freiburg

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Draw (31%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 35%
Draw 31%
Away 33%

💡 Too close to call — almost a coin-flip.

Our pickDraw
SwiftScore Low · 36.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 36.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1421 v 1476 Freiburg rated higher
Form Index 1.4 v 0.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Freiburg is the stronger side on Power Rating (1476 vs 1421).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Freiburg
Form Index
St Pauli
Goal expectation
St Pauli
Home advantage
St Pauli

Green = favours St Pauli · Blue = favours Freiburg. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
St PauliLWWDL1.4 ppg
FreiburgLWLDL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
St Pauli1421
Freiburg1476
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model41% · 30% · 29%
Power Rating38% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning26% · 38% · 35%

AI match preview

St Pauli and Freiburg are set for a closely contested Bundesliga clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 35%, but a draw remains the most probable outcome at 31%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 52% chance of BTTS and a projected 1-1 scoreline reflecting the tight nature of this encounter. Over 2.5 goals looks less likely at 46%, suggesting a moderate-scoring game; remember, these projections are statistical estimates and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.13

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 46%

Under 54%

Both teams to score

Yes 52%

No 48%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 St Pauli 1–2 Freiburg
Nov 2025 Freiburg 2–1 St Pauli