Union Berlin vs St Pauli Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sun 5 Apr, 15:30
Union Berlin
11 Full time
St Pauli
Union Berlin 1–1 St Pauli

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (49%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 49%
Draw 26%
Away 25%

💡 Union Berlin are favourites — about 49 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 55.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 55.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1444 v 1410 Union Berlin rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1444 vs 1410).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Union Berlin
Form Index
St Pauli
Goal expectation
Union Berlin
Home advantage
Union Berlin

Green = favours Union Berlin · Blue = favours St Pauli. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Union BerlinWLLWL1.2 ppg
St PauliWWDLL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Union Berlin1444
St Pauli1410
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model47% · 30% · 23%
Power Rating52% · 18% · 30%
Machine-learning57% · 18% · 25%

AI match preview

Union Berlin hosts St Pauli in a Bundesliga clash where the home side holds a slight 49% chance of victory, with draws and away wins trailing closely at 26% and 25% respectively. The model projects a tight contest with expected goals favoring Union Berlin 1.42 to 0.93, yet the most probable scoreline remains 1-1. With under 50% probabilities for both over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, this match could hinge on fine margins; remember these are statistical projections and please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.42 – 0.93

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stadion An der Alten Forsterei Berlin, Germany Capacity 22,012 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Union Berlin 1–1 St Pauli
Nov 2025 St Pauli 0–1 Union Berlin