Mainz vs Freiburg Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sun 12 Apr, 19:30
Mainz
01 Full time
Freiburg
Mainz 0–1 Freiburg

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (46%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 46%
Draw 28%
Away 27%

💡 Mainz are favourites — about 46 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 51.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 51.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1511 v 1481 Mainz rated higher
Form Index 2.2 v 0.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Mainz v Freiburg

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1511 vs 1481).
  • Mainz is in clearly better recent form (2.2 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Mainz
Form Index
Mainz
Goal expectation
Mainz
Home advantage
Mainz

Green = favours Mainz · Blue = favours Freiburg. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MainzDDWWW2.2 ppg
FreiburgLDLWL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Mainz1511
Freiburg1481
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 30% · 24%
Power Rating52% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning49% · 30% · 22%

AI match preview

Mainz and Freiburg are set for a closely contested Bundesliga clash, with the model giving Mainz a slight edge at 46% to claim victory, though a draw remains a strong possibility at 28%. Expected goals suggest a tight game, projected around 1.46 for Mainz and 0.99 for Freiburg, with a 1-1 scoreline being the most likely outcome. With just a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability for both teams to score, this match could hinge on fine margins—remember, these projections are statistical estimates and not certainties; please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.46 – 0.99

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 44%

Under 56%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Mainz 0–1 Freiburg
Nov 2025 Freiburg 4–0 Mainz