St Pauli vs Mainz Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sun 3 May, 15:30
St Pauli
12 Full time
Mainz
St Pauli 1–2 Mainz

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (41%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 31%
Draw 29%
Away 41%

💡 Mainz have a slight edge — leaning Mainz, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 43.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1389 v 1492 Mainz rated higher
Form Index 0.4 v 1.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on St Pauli v Mainz

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Why we predict this

  • Mainz is the stronger side on Power Rating (1492 vs 1389).
  • Mainz is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Mainz
Form Index
Mainz
Goal expectation
Mainz
Home advantage
St Pauli

Green = favours St Pauli · Blue = favours Mainz. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
St PauliLDLDL0.4 ppg
MainzWWLDL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
St Pauli1389
Mainz1492
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 29% · 44%
Power Rating34% · 24% · 42%
Machine-learning20% · 33% · 46%

AI match preview

St Pauli host Mainz in a Bundesliga clash where the visitors hold a slight edge with a 41% chance of victory, while a draw and home win remain plausible outcomes at 29% and 31%, respectively. The model projects a competitive match with expected goals favoring Mainz (1.50) over St Pauli (1.14), and a most likely scoreline of 1-1 suggests both sides could find the net in a balanced encounter. With a 54% probability for both teams to score and nearly even odds on over 2.5 goals, this game promises tight action—remember these projections are statistical estimates and always gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.50

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 54%

No 46%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 St Pauli 1–2 Mainz
Dec 2025 Mainz 0–0 St Pauli