Mainz vs Union Berlin Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sun 10 May, 19:30
Mainz
13 Full time
Union Berlin
Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (58%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 58%
Draw 20%
Away 21%

💡 Mainz are favourites — about 58 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 69.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 69.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1501 v 1402 Mainz rated higher
Form Index 1.4 v 0.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Mainz v Union Berlin

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Why we predict this

  • Mainz is the stronger side on Power Rating (1501 vs 1402).
  • Mainz is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Mainz
Form Index
Mainz
Goal expectation
Mainz
Home advantage
Mainz

Green = favours Mainz · Blue = favours Union Berlin. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MainzWLDLW1.4 ppg
Union BerlinDLLLD0.4 ppg
Power Rating
Mainz1501
Union Berlin1402
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 30% · 24%
Power Rating63% · 12% · 25%
Machine-learning70% · 16% · 14%

AI match preview

Mainz holds a 58% chance of claiming victory against Union Berlin in this Bundesliga clash, with the model suggesting a moderately confident home win. Expected goals favor Mainz at 1.44 compared to Union Berlin's 0.97, yet the most probable scoreline remains a 1-1 draw, reflecting a tightly contested encounter. While the likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 43% and both teams scoring is just under 50%, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.44 – 0.97

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 43%

Under 57%

Both teams to score

Yes 49%

No 51%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Mainz 1–3 Union Berlin
Jan 2026 Union Berlin 2–2 Mainz