Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction

Bundesliga 25/26 · Sat 16 May, 15:30
Freiburg
41 Full time
RB Leipzig
Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (40%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 34%
Draw 26%
Away 40%

💡 RB Leipzig have a slight edge — leaning RB Leipzig, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 42.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 42.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1476 v 1598 RB Leipzig rated higher
Form Index 1.4 v 2.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Freiburg v RB Leipzig

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Why we predict this

  • RB Leipzig is the stronger side on Power Rating (1598 vs 1476).
  • RB Leipzig is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
RB Leipzig
Form Index
RB Leipzig
Goal expectation
Freiburg
Home advantage
Freiburg

Green = favours Freiburg · Blue = favours RB Leipzig. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
FreiburgWWLDL1.4 ppg
RB LeipzigWWWLW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Freiburg1476
RB Leipzig1598
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model39% · 28% · 34%
Power Rating33% · 22% · 46%
Machine-learning16% · 32% · 52%

AI match preview

Freiburg hosts RB Leipzig in a tightly contested Bundesliga clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 40%, though a draw remains a strong possibility with a 26% chance. Expected goals are close, 1.52 for Freiburg and 1.41 for Leipzig, suggesting a competitive match likely to yield goals, with a 61% probability of both teams scoring and a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the balanced nature of this matchup; remember these projections are statistical and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.41

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 56%

Under 44%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Europa-Park Stadion Freiburg, Germany Capacity 34,700 · grass
Partly cloudy · 13.2°C
Feels like 12.6°C Wind 3 km/h Rain chance 15%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Freiburg 4–1 RB Leipzig
Jan 2026 RB Leipzig 2–0 Freiburg