Everton vs Newcastle Prediction

Premier League 22/23 · Thu 27 Apr, 20:45
Everton
14 Full time
Newcastle
Everton 1–4 Newcastle

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (60%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 18%
Draw 22%
Away 60%

💡 Newcastle are favourites — about 60 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 70.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 70.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1397 v 1616 Newcastle rated higher
Form Index 0.6 v 2.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Everton v Newcastle

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Why we predict this

  • Newcastle is the stronger side on Power Rating (1616 vs 1397).
  • Newcastle is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.6 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Newcastle
Form Index
Newcastle
Goal expectation
Newcastle
Home advantage
Everton

Green = favours Everton · Blue = favours Newcastle. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
EvertonDDLLD0.6 ppg
NewcastleWWWLW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Everton1397
Newcastle1616
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model14% · 28% · 58%
Power Rating25% · 13% · 62%
Machine-learning7% · 11% · 82%

AI match preview

Everton host Newcastle in a Premier League clash where the model favors an away win with a 60% probability, reflecting Newcastle's stronger expected performance. The predicted scoreline is a narrow 1-0 victory for Newcastle, with expected goals at 0.65 for Everton and 1.56 for the visitors, suggesting a tight contest with limited scoring. With under 2.5 goals and both teams not likely to score, this match may be a low-scoring affair; remember, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.65 – 1.56

Most likely score

0-1

16% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 38%

Under 62%

Both teams to score

Yes 39%

No 61%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Hill Dickinson Stadium Liverpool, England Capacity 52,888 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Everton 1–4 Newcastle
Oct 2022 Newcastle 1–0 Everton