Southampton vs Bournemouth Prediction

Premier League 22/23 · Thu 27 Apr, 20:45
Southampton
01 Full time
Bournemouth
Southampton 0–1 Bournemouth

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (39%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 39%
Draw 25%
Away 36%

💡 Southampton have a slight edge — leaning Southampton, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 40.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1372 v 1411 Bournemouth rated higher
Form Index 0.4 v 1.8 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Southampton v Bournemouth

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1372 vs 1411).
  • Bournemouth is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Bournemouth
Form Index
Bournemouth
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Southampton

Green = favours Southampton · Blue = favours Bournemouth. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
SouthamptonDLLLD0.4 ppg
BournemouthWLWWL1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Southampton1372
Bournemouth1411
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model37% · 27% · 36%
Power Rating41% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning42% · 13% · 45%

AI match preview

Southampton and Bournemouth head into their Premier League clash with closely matched expected goals of 1.54 and 1.52, respectively, suggesting a tight contest. The model gives a slight edge to Southampton with a 39% chance of a home win, while a draw and away win stand at 25% and 36%, indicating a competitive encounter likely to produce goals. With a 63% probability for both teams to score and a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, fans can anticipate an open game, but please remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.52

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 59%

Under 41%

Both teams to score

Yes 63%

No 37%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St Mary's Stadium Southampton, England Capacity 32,384 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2023 Southampton 0–1 Bournemouth
Oct 2022 Bournemouth 0–1 Southampton