Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction

Premier League 22/23 · Sun 7 May, 17:30
Newcastle
02 Full time
Arsenal
Newcastle 0–2 Arsenal

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (43%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 43%
Draw 23%
Away 34%

💡 Newcastle have a slight edge — leaning Newcastle, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 45.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 45.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1631 v 1658 Arsenal rated higher
Form Index 2.4 v 1.2 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Newcastle v Arsenal

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1631 vs 1658).
  • Newcastle is in clearly better recent form (2.4 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Arsenal
Form Index
Newcastle
Goal expectation
Newcastle
Home advantage
Newcastle

Green = favours Newcastle · Blue = favours Arsenal. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NewcastleWLWWW2.4 ppg
ArsenalDDDLW1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Newcastle1631
Arsenal1658
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 30% · 32%
Power Rating43% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning50% · 10% · 41%

AI match preview

Newcastle and Arsenal are set for a closely contested Premier League clash, with the model giving a slight edge to Newcastle at 43% compared to Arsenal's 34%, while a draw stands at 23%. The expected goals tally is tight as well, 1.31 for Newcastle and 1.17 for Arsenal, suggesting a competitive match that could well end in a 1-1 draw. With a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and 52% probability for both teams to score, this game promises some attacking action; however, these are statistical projections and all bets should be placed responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.17

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 45%

Under 55%

Both teams to score

Yes 52%

No 48%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St James' Park Newcastle, England Capacity 52,305 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Newcastle 0–2 Arsenal
Jan 2023 Arsenal 0–0 Newcastle