Chelsea vs Newcastle Prediction

Premier League 22/23 · Sun 28 May, 17:30
Chelsea
11 Full time
Newcastle
Chelsea 1–1 Newcastle

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (50%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 27%
Draw 22%
Away 50%

💡 Newcastle are favourites — about 50 times in 100.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 56.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 56.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1441 v 1614 Newcastle rated higher
Form Index 0.8 v 1.6 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Chelsea v Newcastle

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Why we predict this

  • Newcastle is the stronger side on Power Rating (1614 vs 1441).
  • Newcastle is in clearly better recent form (1.6 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Newcastle
Form Index
Newcastle
Goal expectation
Newcastle
Home advantage
Chelsea

Green = favours Chelsea · Blue = favours Newcastle. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ChelseaLWDLL0.8 ppg
NewcastleWLDWD1.6 ppg
Power Rating
Chelsea1441
Newcastle1614
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model19% · 31% · 51%
Power Rating29% · 17% · 54%
Machine-learning13% · 11% · 76%

AI match preview

Chelsea face a challenging Premier League clash at home against Newcastle, with the model giving the visitors a 50% chance of victory compared to 27% for the hosts. Expected goals suggest a tight contest, projecting a 0.76-1.40 split and a most likely 0-1 scoreline in favor of Newcastle. With only a 37% probability for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, this match could be a low-scoring affair; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.76 – 1.40

Most likely score

0-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 37%

Under 63%

Both teams to score

Yes 42%

No 58%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Stamford Bridge London, England Capacity 40,173 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2023 Chelsea 1–1 Newcastle
Nov 2022 Newcastle 1–0 Chelsea