Newcastle vs Leeds Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Wed 7 Jan, 20:15
Newcastle
43 Full time
Leeds
Newcastle 4–3 Leeds

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (58%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 58%
Draw 23%
Away 18%

💡 Newcastle are favourites — about 58 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 68.2/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 68.2
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1522 v 1480 Newcastle rated higher
Form Index LDLWW v DWDDD Newcastle 1.4 · Leeds 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Newcastle v Leeds

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Newcastle is the stronger side on Power Rating (1522 vs 1480).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.1 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Newcastle
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Newcastle
Home advantage
Newcastle

Green = favours Newcastle · Blue = favours Leeds. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NewcastleLDLWW1.4 ppg
LeedsDWDDD1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Newcastle1522
Leeds1480
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model64% · 22% · 14%
Power Rating54% · 17% · 29%
Machine-learning57% · 29% · 14%

AI match preview

Newcastle enter this Premier League clash with a strong 58% probability of securing a home win against Leeds, backed by a confident expected goals margin of 2.11 to 0.89. The model suggests a 2-0 scoreline as the most likely outcome, with a moderate 58% chance of the match producing over 2.5 goals and a 53% likelihood of both teams scoring. These projections reflect statistical probabilities and should be considered thoughtfully—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.11 – 0.89

Most likely score

2-0

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 58%

Under 42%

Both teams to score

Yes 53%

No 47%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Stadium & conditions

St James' Park Newcastle, England Capacity 52,305 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Newcastle 4–3 Leeds
Aug 2025 Leeds 0–0 Newcastle