Newcastle vs Aston Villa Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Sun 25 Jan, 14:00
Newcastle
02 Full time
Aston Villa
Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 25%
Away 31%

💡 Newcastle have a slight edge — leaning Newcastle, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 47.6/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 47.6
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1527 v 1570 Aston Villa rated higher
Form Index LWWWD v WLWDL Newcastle 2.0 · Aston Villa 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Newcastle v Aston Villa

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Why we predict this

  • Aston Villa is the stronger side on Power Rating (1570 vs 1527).
  • Newcastle is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Aston Villa
Form Index
Newcastle
Goal expectation
Newcastle
Home advantage
Newcastle

Green = favours Newcastle · Blue = favours Aston Villa. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NewcastleLWWWD2.0 ppg
Aston VillaWLWDL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Newcastle1527
Aston Villa1570
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model44% · 25% · 30%
Power Rating40% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning48% · 22% · 31%

AI match preview

Newcastle hosts Aston Villa in a closely contested Premier League clash, with the model giving the home side a 44% chance of victory and a 31% probability for an away win. Expected goals suggest a tight encounter (1.80 for Newcastle vs. 1.47 for Villa), and the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the competitive balance. With a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and 66% likelihood of both teams scoring, fans can anticipate an engaging match, but remember these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.47

Most likely score

1-1

11% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 64%

Under 36%

Both teams to score

Yes 66%

No 34%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St James' Park Newcastle, England Capacity 52,305 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Newcastle 0–2 Aston Villa
Aug 2025 Aston Villa 0–0 Newcastle