Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Sat 7 Feb, 15:00
Bournemouth
11 Full time
Aston Villa
Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (40%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 35%
Draw 25%
Away 40%

💡 Aston Villa have a slight edge — leaning Aston Villa, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 41.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1501 v 1572 Aston Villa rated higher
Form Index LWDWW v WDLWL Bournemouth 2.0 · Aston Villa 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Bournemouth v Aston Villa

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Why we predict this

  • Aston Villa is the stronger side on Power Rating (1572 vs 1501).
  • Bournemouth is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Aston Villa
Form Index
Bournemouth
Goal expectation
Bournemouth
Home advantage
Bournemouth

Green = favours Bournemouth · Blue = favours Aston Villa. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
BournemouthLWDWW2.0 ppg
Aston VillaWDLWL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Bournemouth1501
Aston Villa1572
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 29% · 32%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning37% · 14% · 49%

AI match preview

Bournemouth and Aston Villa face off in a Premier League clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 40%, though a draw remains a strong possibility with a 25% chance. Expected goals are close, 1.39 for Bournemouth and 1.26 for Aston Villa, suggesting a tight contest likely to produce a 1-1 scoreline. With both teams to score at 55% and under 2.5 goals just edging over at 49%, this match promises competitive action; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.26

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Vitality Stadium Bournemouth, England Capacity 11,307 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa
Nov 2025 Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth