Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Sun 22 Mar, 12:00
Newcastle
12 Full time
Sunderland
Newcastle 1–2 Sunderland

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (58%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 58%
Draw 22%
Away 20%

💡 Newcastle are favourites — about 58 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 68.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 68.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1504 v 1469 Newcastle rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 0.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Newcastle v Sunderland

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1504 vs 1469).
  • Newcastle is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.8 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.7 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Newcastle
Form Index
Newcastle
Goal expectation
Newcastle
Home advantage
Newcastle

Green = favours Newcastle · Blue = favours Sunderland. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NewcastleWLLWW1.8 ppg
SunderlandLLDWL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Newcastle1504
Sunderland1469
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model57% · 27% · 16%
Power Rating53% · 18% · 30%
Machine-learning56% · 20% · 24%

AI match preview

Newcastle enter this Premier League clash with a 58% chance of securing a home win against Sunderland, backed by a model confidence of 68/100. The expected goals suggest Newcastle will edge the game offensively (1.70 to 0.81), yet the most likely scoreline is a tight 1-1 draw, reflecting a competitive encounter. With under 50% probabilities for both over 2.5 goals and BTTS, this match may lean towards a low-scoring affair; remember, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.70 – 0.81

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 46%

Under 54%

Both teams to score

Yes 47%

No 53%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St James' Park Newcastle, England Capacity 52,305 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Newcastle 1–2 Sunderland
Dec 2025 Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle