Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Sat 18 Apr, 16:00
Newcastle
12 Full time
Bournemouth
Newcastle 1–2 Bournemouth

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (43%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 43%
Draw 25%
Away 32%

💡 Newcastle have a slight edge — leaning Newcastle, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 46.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 46.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1481 v 1524 Bournemouth rated higher
Form Index 1.2 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Newcastle v Bournemouth

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Why we predict this

  • Bournemouth is the stronger side on Power Rating (1524 vs 1481).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Bournemouth
Form Index
Bournemouth
Goal expectation
Newcastle
Home advantage
Newcastle

Green = favours Newcastle · Blue = favours Bournemouth. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NewcastleLWWLL1.2 ppg
BournemouthDDDDW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Newcastle1481
Bournemouth1524
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 22% · 33%
Power Rating40% · 25% · 35%
Machine-learning44% · 24% · 32%

AI match preview

Newcastle hosts Bournemouth in a Premier League clash where the model gives a slight edge to the home side with a 43% chance of victory, compared to 32% for the visitors and 25% for a draw. The expected goals suggest an open game, with Newcastle projected to score 2.26 and Bournemouth 1.92, making a 2-1 scoreline the most likely outcome. With a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 77% chance both teams score, fans can anticipate an entertaining match; remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.26 – 1.92

Most likely score

2-1

8% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 79%

Under 21%

Both teams to score

Yes 77%

No 23%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St James' Park Newcastle, England Capacity 52,305 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Newcastle 1–2 Bournemouth
Sept 2025 Bournemouth 0–0 Newcastle