Leeds vs Burnley Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Fri 1 May, 21:00
Leeds
31 Full time
Burnley
Leeds 3–1 Burnley

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (68%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 68%
Draw 20%
Away 12%

💡 Leeds are strong favourites — roughly 7 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 81.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 81.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1500 v 1335 Leeds rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 0.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Leeds is the stronger side on Power Rating (1500 vs 1335).
  • Leeds is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (2.3 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Leeds
Form Index
Leeds
Goal expectation
Leeds
Home advantage
Leeds

Green = favours Leeds · Blue = favours Burnley. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
LeedsDDWWD1.8 ppg
BurnleyDLLLL0.2 ppg
Power Rating
Leeds1500
Burnley1335
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model63% · 21% · 16%
Power Rating70% · 12% · 19%
Machine-learning63% · 32% · 5%

AI match preview

Leeds are projected to have a strong advantage against Burnley in this Premier League clash, with a 68% probability of securing a home win and an expected scoreline favoring Leeds 2-1. The model suggests a lively encounter, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and 61% likelihood of both teams scoring. While Leeds appear favored, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

2.29 – 1.09

Most likely score

2-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 66%

Under 34%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Elland Road Leeds, England Capacity 37,792 · grass
Overcast · 15.1°C
Feels like 12.6°C Wind 17 km/h Rain chance 37%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Leeds 3–1 Burnley
Oct 2025 Burnley 2–0 Leeds