Newcastle vs Brighton Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Sat 2 May, 16:00
Newcastle
31 Full time
Brighton
Newcastle 3–1 Brighton

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (42%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 34%
Draw 25%
Away 42%

💡 Brighton have a slight edge — leaning Brighton, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 44.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1464 v 1548 Brighton rated higher
Form Index 0.6 v 2.6 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Newcastle v Brighton

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Why we predict this

  • Brighton is the stronger side on Power Rating (1548 vs 1464).
  • Brighton is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Brighton
Form Index
Brighton
Goal expectation
Brighton
Home advantage
Newcastle

Green = favours Newcastle · Blue = favours Brighton. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NewcastleWLLLL0.6 ppg
BrightonWWWDW2.6 ppg
Power Rating
Newcastle1464
Brighton1548
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model35% · 27% · 38%
Power Rating35% · 25% · 39%
Machine-learning24% · 16% · 59%

AI match preview

Newcastle host Brighton in a Premier League clash where the model slightly favors an away win at 42%, though a draw remains a strong possibility with a 25% chance. Both teams are projected to score, with an expected goals tally close to 1.5 each and a 64% probability of both sides finding the net. With a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.52 – 1.59

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 60%

Under 40%

Both teams to score

Yes 64%

No 36%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St James' Park Newcastle, England Capacity 52,305 · grass
Partly cloudy · 16.9°C
Feels like 14.1°C Wind 14 km/h Rain chance 49%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Newcastle 3–1 Brighton
Oct 2025 Brighton 2–1 Newcastle