Burnley vs Aston Villa Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Sun 10 May, 15:00
Burnley
22 Full time
Aston Villa
Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (62%); it finished a draw.

What our model predicted

Home 19%
Draw 20%
Away 62%

💡 Aston Villa are strong favourites — roughly 6 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Medium · 73.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 73.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1328 v 1507 Aston Villa rated higher
Form Index 0 v 1.4 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Aston Villa is the stronger side on Power Rating (1507 vs 1328).
  • Aston Villa is in clearly better recent form (1.4 vs 0.0 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.4 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Aston Villa
Form Index
Aston Villa
Goal expectation
Aston Villa
Home advantage
Burnley

Green = favours Burnley · Blue = favours Aston Villa. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
BurnleyLLLLL0 ppg
Aston VillaWDWLL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Burnley1328
Aston Villa1507
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model22% · 30% · 48%
Power Rating28% · 17% · 55%
Machine-learning16% · 9% · 76%

AI match preview

Burnley host Aston Villa in a Premier League clash where the model gives the visitors a 62% chance of taking all three points, with a confidence rating of 73/100. The expected goals suggest a moderately open game, with Aston Villa slightly favored to edge the match (1.43 vs. 0.92), though the most likely scoreline remains a 1-1 draw. Goals may be limited as the probabilities for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score sit below 50%, so fans should anticipate a tight contest. Remember, these are statistical projections only—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.92 – 1.43

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 47%

No 53%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Burnley 2–2 Aston Villa
Oct 2025 Aston Villa 2–1 Burnley