Arsenal vs Burnley Prediction

Premier League 25/26 · Mon 18 May, 21:00
Arsenal
10 Full time
Burnley
Arsenal 1–0 Burnley

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (82%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 82%
Draw 14%
Away 4%

💡 Arsenal are strong favourites — roughly 8 wins in 10 games like this.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore High · 95.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 95.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1664 v 1332 Arsenal rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 0.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Arsenal v Burnley

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Why we predict this

  • Arsenal is the stronger side on Power Rating (1664 vs 1332).
  • Arsenal is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 0.2 pts/game).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (3.3 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Arsenal
Form Index
Arsenal
Goal expectation
Arsenal
Home advantage
Arsenal

Green = favours Arsenal · Blue = favours Burnley. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
ArsenalLLWWW1.8 ppg
BurnleyLLLLD0.2 ppg
Power Rating
Arsenal1664
Burnley1332
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model86% · 10% · 4%
Power Rating80% · 12% · 8%
Machine-learning66% · 33% · 1%

AI match preview

Arsenal enter this Premier League clash as strong favorites with an 82% chance of securing a home win, backed by a projected 3.27 expected goals compared to Burnley’s 0.64. The model suggests a 3-0 scoreline as the most likely outcome, with a 75% probability of the match seeing over 2.5 goals, though both teams scoring is less probable at 46%. These statistical projections highlight Arsenal's dominance but remember to gamble responsibly (18+), as football outcomes can always surprise.

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

3.27 – 0.64

Most likely score

3-0

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 75%

Under 25%

Both teams to score

Yes 46%

No 54%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Emirates Stadium London, England Capacity 60,704 · grass
Overcast · 13°C
Feels like 9.3°C Wind 16 km/h Rain chance 2%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

May 2026 Arsenal 1–0 Burnley
Nov 2025 Burnley 0–2 Arsenal