✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (38%); it finished a home win.
What our model predicted
💡 Middlesbrough have a slight edge — leaning Middlesbrough, but it's close.
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Why we predict this
- Middlesbrough is the stronger side on Power Rating (1547 vs 1495).
- Away side projects to create more (1.7 expected goals).
- Model components are split — lower conviction.
What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours
Green = favours Derby · Blue = favours Middlesbrough. The model blends these into the probabilities above.
AI match preview
Derby and Middlesbrough face off in a closely matched Championship clash, with the model slightly favoring an away win at 38% probability over a home victory at 34%. The expected goals suggest a competitive game with Middlesbrough edging the scoring at 1.65 to Derby’s 1.10, while a 1-1 draw remains the most likely scoreline. There's a moderate chance for both teams to score (56%) and for the game to exceed 2.5 goals (52%), but these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).
Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.
Match predictions
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.65
Most likely score
1-1
13% likely
Over/Under 2.5
Over 52%
Under 48%
Both teams to score
Yes 56%
No 44%
Value bet vs odds
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Go PremiumSeason averages (per game · last 92+ matches)
Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.
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Stadium & conditions
Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.