Derby vs Middlesbrough Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Thu 1 Jan, 15:00
Derby
10 Full time
Middlesbrough
Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Away win (38%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 34%
Draw 28%
Away 38%

💡 Middlesbrough have a slight edge — leaning Middlesbrough, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 39.6/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 39.6
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1495 v 1547 Middlesbrough rated higher
Form Index DWDDL v WWLDL Derby 1.2 · Middlesbrough 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Middlesbrough is the stronger side on Power Rating (1547 vs 1495).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.7 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Middlesbrough
Form Index
Middlesbrough
Goal expectation
Middlesbrough
Home advantage
Derby

Green = favours Derby · Blue = favours Middlesbrough. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
DerbyDWDDL1.2 ppg
MiddlesbroughWWLDL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Derby1495
Middlesbrough1547
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model24% · 27% · 49%
Power Rating39% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning44% · 27% · 28%

AI match preview

Derby and Middlesbrough face off in a closely matched Championship clash, with the model slightly favoring an away win at 38% probability over a home victory at 34%. The expected goals suggest a competitive game with Middlesbrough edging the scoring at 1.65 to Derby’s 1.10, while a 1-1 draw remains the most likely scoreline. There's a moderate chance for both teams to score (56%) and for the game to exceed 2.5 goals (52%), but these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.10 – 1.65

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 52%

Under 48%

Both teams to score

Yes 56%

No 44%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 92+ matches)

DerbyMiddlesbrough
4.8 Corners 6.0
2.2 Cards 1.6
12.2 Fouls 9.8

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Derby 1–0 Middlesbrough
Nov 2025 Middlesbrough 2–1 Derby