Who is predicted to win Derby vs Wrexham?

Our AI model predicts Home win (40% probability). The home/draw/away split is 40% / 29% / 30%.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Wrexham?

The most likely scoreline from the SwiftScore model is 1-1 (15%), from projected expected goals of 0.96–1.18.

Will both teams score in Derby vs Wrexham?

Both teams to score: Yes 45%, No 55%. The chance of over 2.5 goals is 36%.

How confident is SwiftScore in this Derby vs Wrexham prediction?

SwiftScore rates this call 43/100. Every prediction is locked before kick-off and graded against the real result on our public accuracy page.

Derby vs Wrexham Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Sun 4 Jan, 15:00

Derby

1–2 Full time

Wrexham

Derby 1–2 Wrexham

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (40%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 40%

Draw 29%

Away 30%

💡 Derby have a slight edge — leaning Derby, but it's close.

Our pickHome win

SwiftScore Low · 43.0/100

🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited

SwiftScore 43.0

/100 confidence

Power Rating 1506 v 1545 Wrexham rated higher

Form Index WDDLW v DLWWW Derby 1.6 · Wrexham 2.0 ppg

Model Consensus 67%

models back the pick

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Why we predict this

Closely matched on Power Rating (1506 vs 1545).
Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating

Wrexham

Form Index

Wrexham

Goal expectation

Wrexham

Home advantage

Derby

Green = favours Derby · Blue = favours Wrexham. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)

DerbyWDDLW1.6 ppg

WrexhamDLWWW2.0 ppg

Power Rating

Derby1506

Wrexham1545

Model Consensus (home/draw/away)

Goals model28% · 33% · 39%

Power Rating41% · 25% · 35%

Machine-learning46% · 28% · 26%

AI match preview

Derby and Wrexham are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model giving Derby a slight edge at 40% to win, though a draw at 29% and an away victory at 30% remain strong possibilities. The expected goals suggest a tight match with a probable 1-1 scoreline, reflecting balanced attacking chances on both sides. With only a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and 45% probability for both teams to score, fans should anticipate a competitive, low-scoring encounter. Remember, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

0.96 – 1.18

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 36%

Under 64%

Both teams to score

Yes 45%

No 55%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 46+ matches)

DerbyWrexham

4.8 Corners 4.5

2.2 Cards 1.6

12.2 Fouls 9.7

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Derby 1–2 Wrexham

Sept 2025 Wrexham 1–1 Derby