Bristol City vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Fri 30 Jan, 20:00
Bristol City
05 Full time
Derby
Bristol City 0–5 Derby

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (45%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 45%
Draw 27%
Away 27%

💡 Bristol City are favourites — about 45 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 50.3/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 50.3
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1513 v 1516 Derby rated higher
Form Index WLDLW v WLWWD Bristol City 1.4 · Derby 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Bristol City v Derby

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1513 vs 1516).
  • Derby is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 1.4 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Even
Form Index
Derby
Goal expectation
Bristol City
Home advantage
Bristol City

Green = favours Bristol City · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
Bristol CityWLDLW1.4 ppg
DerbyWLWWD2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Bristol City1513
Derby1516
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 30% · 33%
Power Rating46% · 21% · 32%
Machine-learning46% · 31% · 24%

AI match preview

Bristol City and Derby are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the home side holding a slight 45% edge for victory according to the model. Both teams are projected to net around 1.3 goals each, making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline despite the home win pick. With a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and 55% both teams to score probability, this match promises a competitive encounter—remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.26

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 49%

Under 51%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 92+ matches)

Bristol CityDerby
5.2 Corners 4.8
1.7 Cards 2.2
9.8 Fouls 12.2

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2026 Bristol City 0–5 Derby
Aug 2025 Derby 1–1 Bristol City