Derby vs Swansea Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Sat 14 Feb, 15:00
Derby
20 Full time
Swansea
Derby 2–0 Swansea

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 28%
Away 31%

💡 Derby have a slight edge — leaning Derby, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 44.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1531 v 1505 Derby rated higher
Form Index WWDWL v DWLWW Derby 2.0 · Swansea 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1531 vs 1505).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Even
Home advantage
Derby

Green = favours Derby · Blue = favours Swansea. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
DerbyWWDWL2.0 ppg
SwanseaDWLWW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Derby1531
Swansea1505
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model34% · 32% · 35%
Power Rating51% · 19% · 30%
Machine-learning50% · 28% · 23%

AI match preview

Derby and Swansea are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model slightly favoring a Derby win at 41% probability, though a draw remains a strong possibility. Both teams are projected to score around 1.1 goals each, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With under 2.5 goals and both teams scoring being nearly even probabilities, this match could hinge on fine margins; remember these are statistical projections and please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.15

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 40%

Under 60%

Both teams to score

Yes 48%

No 52%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 92+ matches)

DerbySwansea
4.8 Corners 4.9
2.2 Cards 1.9
12.2 Fouls 10.2

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Derby 2–0 Swansea
Nov 2025 Swansea 1–2 Derby