Watford vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Sat 21 Feb, 15:00
Watford
20 Full time
Derby
Watford 2–0 Derby

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (42%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 42%
Draw 28%
Away 30%

💡 Watford have a slight edge — leaning Watford, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 44.8/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 44.8
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1507 v 1543 Derby rated higher
Form Index DLDLD v WDWLW Watford 0.6 · Derby 2.0 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1507 vs 1543).
  • Derby is in clearly better recent form (2.0 vs 0.6 pts/game).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby
Form Index
Derby
Goal expectation
Derby
Home advantage
Watford

Green = favours Watford · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
WatfordDLDLD0.6 ppg
DerbyWDWLW2.0 ppg
Power Rating
Watford1507
Derby1543
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 29% · 42%
Power Rating41% · 24% · 35%
Machine-learning42% · 33% · 25%

AI match preview

Watford host Derby in a closely contested Championship clash where the model slightly favors a home win at 42%, though a draw or away victory remain plausible outcomes. With expected goals between 1.20 and 1.49, the match is projected to be tight, with 1-1 emerging as the most likely scoreline. There's a balanced 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability both teams will score, highlighting potential attacking opportunities; remember, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.49

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 56%

No 44%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 92+ matches)

WatfordDerby
5.1 Corners 4.8
2.2 Cards 2.2
11.9 Fouls 12.2

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Watford 2–0 Derby
Nov 2025 Derby 2–3 Watford