Hull vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Tue 24 Feb, 19:45
Hull
42 Full time
Derby
Hull 4–2 Derby

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (40%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 40%
Draw 26%
Away 34%

💡 Hull have a slight edge — leaning Hull, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 41.1/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 41.1
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1537 v 1528 Hull rated higher
Form Index WWDLL v DWLWL Hull 1.4 · Derby 1.4 ppg
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1537 vs 1528).
  • Away side projects to create more (1.9 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Hull
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Derby
Home advantage
Hull

Green = favours Hull · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
HullWWDLL1.4 ppg
DerbyDWLWL1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Hull1537
Derby1528
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model22% · 25% · 53%
Power Rating48% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning43% · 29% · 28%

AI match preview

Hull and Derby face off in a Championship clash where the model gives Hull a slight edge with a 40% chance of victory, though a draw or away win remain plausible outcomes. The expected goals suggest an open game, with both sides likely to find the net and a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline. Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are each favored at around 60%, making this an intriguing contest to watch. Remember, these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.18 – 1.92

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 60%

Under 40%

Both teams to score

Yes 61%

No 39%

Value bet vs odds

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Season averages (per game · last 92+ matches)

HullDerby
5.0 Corners 4.8
2.1 Cards 2.2
11.0 Fouls 12.2

Averages of each team's own corners, cards (bookings) and fouls per game, from their recent match history.

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Feb 2026 Hull 4–2 Derby
Nov 2025 Derby 2–1 Hull