Millwall vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Tue 10 Mar, 19:45
Millwall
10 Full time
Derby
Millwall 1–0 Derby

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (44%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 44%
Draw 26%
Away 30%

💡 Millwall have a slight edge — leaning Millwall, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 48.4/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 48.4
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1590 v 1528 Millwall rated higher
Form Index WLWWW v WLLWW Millwall 2.4 · Derby 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Millwall v Derby

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Why we predict this

  • Millwall is the stronger side on Power Rating (1590 vs 1528).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Millwall
Form Index
Millwall
Goal expectation
Derby
Home advantage
Millwall

Green = favours Millwall · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
MillwallWLWWW2.4 ppg
DerbyWLLWW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Millwall1590
Derby1528
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model32% · 28% · 40%
Power Rating57% · 16% · 28%
Machine-learning34% · 30% · 36%

AI match preview

Millwall hosts Derby in a Championship clash where the home side holds a 44% chance of victory, though a draw at 26% and an away win at 30% remain plausible outcomes. The model projects a tight contest with expected goals of 1.36 for Millwall and 1.54 for Derby, making a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline. With a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, fans can anticipate an open game; remember, these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.54

Most likely score

1-1

13% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 55%

Under 45%

Both teams to score

Yes 60%

No 40%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Millwall 1–0 Derby
Dec 2025 Derby 1–1 Millwall