Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Mon 16 Mar, 20:00
Portsmouth
01 Full time
Derby
Portsmouth 0–1 Derby

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (39%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 39%
Draw 29%
Away 32%

💡 Portsmouth have a slight edge — leaning Portsmouth, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 40.8/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.8
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1463 v 1521 Derby rated higher
Form Index WLLDL v LLWWL Portsmouth 0.8 · Derby 1.2 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Portsmouth v Derby

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Why we predict this

  • Derby is the stronger side on Power Rating (1521 vs 1463).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby
Form Index
Derby
Goal expectation
Derby
Home advantage
Portsmouth

Green = favours Portsmouth · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
PortsmouthWLLDL0.8 ppg
DerbyLLWWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Portsmouth1463
Derby1521
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 31% · 42%
Power Rating38% · 26% · 36%
Machine-learning35% · 30% · 35%

AI match preview

Portsmouth and Derby face off in a Championship clash where the home side holds a slight edge with a 39% chance of victory, though a draw at 29% and an away win at 32% remain well within reach. The model projects a tight encounter with an expected goals tally of 1.03 for Portsmouth and 1.35 for Derby, making a 1-1 draw the most probable scoreline. With just under half the probability for both teams to score (49%) and a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals, this matchup could offer moments of excitement—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.35

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 42%

Under 58%

Both teams to score

Yes 49%

No 51%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Mar 2026 Portsmouth 0–1 Derby
Dec 2025 Derby 1–1 Portsmouth