Coventry vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Fri 3 Apr, 21:00
Coventry
32 Full time
Derby
Coventry 3–2 Derby

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (59%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 59%
Draw 22%
Away 19%

💡 Coventry are favourites — about 59 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 69.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 69.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1643 v 1540 Coventry rated higher
Form Index 2.4 v 2.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Coventry v Derby

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Why we predict this

  • Coventry is the stronger side on Power Rating (1643 vs 1540).
  • Home attack projects well against this away defence (1.8 expected goals).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Coventry
Form Index
Even
Goal expectation
Coventry
Home advantage
Coventry

Green = favours Coventry · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
CoventryWWWLW2.4 ppg
DerbyWWLWW2.4 ppg
Power Rating
Coventry1643
Derby1540
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model53% · 26% · 21%
Power Rating64% · 12% · 24%
Machine-learning58% · 26% · 15%

AI match preview

Coventry are favored to edge Derby in this Championship clash, with a 59% probability of a home win and an expected 1.79 goals compared to Derby’s 1.04. Despite the home advantage, the model suggests a closely contested match with a most likely scoreline of 1-1, reflecting a competitive encounter. Fans can also anticipate a moderate chance of both teams scoring (55%) and the game exceeding 2.5 goals (54%), but remember these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.04

Most likely score

1-1

12% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 54%

Under 46%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Coventry 3–2 Derby
Aug 2025 Derby 3–5 Coventry