Derby vs Stoke Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Mon 6 Apr, 16:00
Derby
20 Full time
Stoke
Derby 2–0 Stoke

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (51%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 51%
Draw 25%
Away 24%

💡 Derby are favourites — about 51 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 58.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 58.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1534 v 1480 Derby rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.4 points per game, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby v Stoke

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Why we predict this

  • Derby is the stronger side on Power Rating (1534 vs 1480).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby
Form Index
Derby
Goal expectation
Derby
Home advantage
Derby

Green = favours Derby · Blue = favours Stoke. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
DerbyWLWWL1.8 ppg
StokeLDWLW1.4 ppg
Power Rating
Derby1534
Stoke1480
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model38% · 34% · 28%
Power Rating56% · 16% · 28%
Machine-learning48% · 27% · 25%

AI match preview

Derby holds a slight edge at 51% to claim victory against Stoke in this Championship clash, though a draw is also a plausible outcome with a 25% probability. The model projects a tight contest with expected goals of 1.11 for Derby and 0.93 for Stoke, pointing to a likely 1-1 scoreline. With only a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, fans should anticipate a closely fought encounter; remember, these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.11 – 0.93

Most likely score

1-1

15% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 33%

Under 67%

Both teams to score

Yes 42%

No 58%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Derby 2–0 Stoke
Aug 2025 Stoke 3–1 Derby