Southampton vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Sat 11 Apr, 16:00
Southampton
21 Full time
Derby
Southampton 2–1 Derby

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (54%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 54%
Draw 24%
Away 22%

💡 Southampton are favourites — about 54 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Medium · 62.5/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 62.5
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1607 v 1545 Southampton rated higher
Form Index DWWWW v LWWLW Southampton 2.6 · Derby 1.8 ppg
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Southampton v Derby

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Why we predict this

  • Southampton is the stronger side on Power Rating (1607 vs 1545).
  • Southampton is in clearly better recent form (2.6 vs 1.8 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Southampton
Form Index
Southampton
Goal expectation
Southampton
Home advantage
Southampton

Green = favours Southampton · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
SouthamptonDWWWW2.6 ppg
DerbyLWWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Southampton1607
Derby1545
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model46% · 30% · 25%
Power Rating57% · 16% · 27%
Machine-learning47% · 27% · 26%

AI match preview

Southampton holds a 54% probability of securing a home win against Derby in this Championship clash, with the model suggesting a closely contested match given the 24% draw chance. Expected goals favor Southampton at 1.44 compared to Derby's 1.00, yet the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, highlighting a potentially tight encounter. With only a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood of both teams scoring, this game could hinge on fine margins—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.44 – 1.00

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 44%

Under 56%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

St Mary's Stadium Southampton, England Capacity 32,384 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Southampton 2–1 Derby
Oct 2025 Derby 1–1 Southampton