Derby vs Oxford Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Sat 18 Apr, 13:30
Derby
10 Full time
Oxford
Derby 1–0 Oxford

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (50%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 50%
Draw 25%
Away 25%

💡 Derby are favourites — about 50 times in 100.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 57.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 57.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1538 v 1458 Derby rated higher
Form Index 1.8 v 1.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 100%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Derby v Oxford

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Why we predict this

  • Derby is the stronger side on Power Rating (1538 vs 1458).
  • Derby is in clearly better recent form (1.8 vs 1.2 pts/game).
  • All 3 model components agree on this outcome.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby
Form Index
Derby
Goal expectation
Derby
Home advantage
Derby

Green = favours Derby · Blue = favours Oxford. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
DerbyWWLWL1.8 ppg
OxfordDLDDW1.2 ppg
Power Rating
Derby1538
Oxford1458
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model43% · 30% · 26%
Power Rating60% · 14% · 26%
Machine-learning53% · 26% · 21%

AI match preview

Derby hosts Oxford in a Championship clash where the model favors a home win with a 50% probability, though a draw remains a strong possibility at 25%. Expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Derby edging slightly ahead (1.38 to 1.03), and the most likely scoreline projected as 1-1. With both teams expected to find the net 50% of the time and under 2.5 goals favored, this match could hinge on fine margins—remember, these are statistical projections and to gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.03

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 43%

Under 57%

Both teams to score

Yes 50%

No 50%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Pride Park Stadium Derby, England Capacity 32,956 · grass

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Derby 1–0 Oxford
Oct 2025 Oxford 1–0 Derby