Norwich vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Tue 21 Apr, 20:45
Norwich
21 Full time
Derby
Norwich 2–1 Derby

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Home win (41%); it finished a home win.

What our model predicted

Home 41%
Draw 26%
Away 33%

💡 Norwich have a slight edge — leaning Norwich, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 43.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 43.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1559 v 1545 Norwich rated higher
Form Index 2 v 1.8 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1559 vs 1545).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Norwich
Form Index
Norwich
Goal expectation
Derby
Home advantage
Norwich

Green = favours Norwich · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
NorwichWDWLW2 ppg
DerbyWLWLW1.8 ppg
Power Rating
Norwich1559
Derby1545
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model27% · 28% · 45%
Power Rating49% · 20% · 31%
Machine-learning38% · 30% · 32%

AI match preview

Norwich and Derby are set for a closely contested Championship clash, with the model giving a slight edge to the home side at 41% probability of a win. The expected goals suggest a competitive match, with a 1-1 draw the most likely scoreline and a 55% chance both teams will score. With a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.14 – 1.54

Most likely score

1-1

14% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 50%

Under 50%

Both teams to score

Yes 55%

No 45%

Value bet vs odds

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Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 Norwich 2–1 Derby
Oct 2025 Derby 1–0 Norwich