QPR vs Derby Prediction

Championship 25/26 · Sat 25 Apr, 16:00
QPR
23 Full time
Derby
QPR 2–3 Derby

✓ Our AI called it — we predicted Away win (39%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 35%
Draw 27%
Away 39%

💡 Derby have a slight edge — leaning Derby, but it's close.

Our pickAway win
SwiftScore Low · 40.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 40.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1467 v 1536 Derby rated higher
Form Index 1 v 1.2 ppg, last 5
Model Consensus 67%
models back the pick

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Why we predict this

  • Derby is the stronger side on Power Rating (1536 vs 1467).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Derby
Form Index
Derby
Goal expectation
Derby
Home advantage
QPR

Green = favours QPR · Blue = favours Derby. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
QPRWDDLL1 ppg
DerbyLWLWL1.2 ppg
Power Rating
QPR1467
Derby1536
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model34% · 25% · 42%
Power Rating36% · 27% · 37%
Machine-learning45% · 27% · 29%

AI match preview

QPR and Derby are set for a competitive Championship clash, with the model slightly favoring an away win for Derby at 39%, although a draw remains a strong possibility. The expected goals suggest a close contest with both sides likely to find the net, reflected in a 1-1 most likely scoreline and a 69% chance for both teams to score. With over 2.5 goals predicted at 68%, fans can anticipate an open game, but remember these are statistical projections—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.66 – 1.85

Most likely score

1-1

10% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 68%

Under 32%

Both teams to score

Yes 69%

No 31%

Value bet vs odds

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Stadium & conditions

Loftus Road London, England Capacity 18,439 · grass
Clear · 17.9°C
Feels like 15.5°C Wind 1 km/h Rain chance 0%

Conditions can sway goals and tempo — we factor pitch & weather into the read, but football is never certain. 18+.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Apr 2026 QPR 2–3 Derby
Oct 2025 Derby 1–0 QPR