Auxerre vs Montpellier Prediction

Ligue 1 22/23 · Sun 29 Jan, 14:00
Auxerre
02 Full time
Montpellier
Auxerre 0–2 Montpellier

✗ Our AI missed this one — we predicted Home win (38%); it finished a away win.

What our model predicted

Home 38%
Draw 26%
Away 36%

💡 Auxerre have a slight edge — leaning Auxerre, but it's close.

Our pickHome win
SwiftScore Low · 38.0/100
🔒 Locked 21 Jun · shown before kick-off, never edited
SwiftScore 38.0
/100 confidence
Power Rating 1390 v 1420 Montpellier rated higher
Form Index LLLLL v DWLLL Auxerre 0.0 · Montpellier 0.8 ppg
Model Consensus 33%
models back the pick

Back or counter the AI on Auxerre v Montpellier

Agree with our pick or fade it — lock your call and earn points. Free to play, no stakes.

Why we predict this

  • Closely matched on Power Rating (1390 vs 1420).
  • Montpellier is in clearly better recent form (0.8 vs 0.0 pts/game).
  • Away side projects to create more (2.1 expected goals).
  • Model components are split — lower conviction.

What's driving it — each bar shows which side a factor favours

Power Rating
Montpellier
Form Index
Auxerre
Goal expectation
Montpellier
Home advantage
Auxerre

Green = favours Auxerre · Blue = favours Montpellier. The model blends these into the probabilities above.

Form Index (last 5)
AuxerreLLLLL0.0 ppg
MontpellierDWLLL0.8 ppg
Power Rating
Auxerre1390
Montpellier1420
Model Consensus (home/draw/away)
Goals model29% · 23% · 49%
Power Rating42% · 24% · 34%
Machine-learning36% · 21% · 43%

AI match preview

Auxerre and Montpellier are poised for a closely contested Ligue 1 clash, with the model slightly favoring a home win at 38% probability, though a draw or away victory remain highly plausible. The expected goals tally suggests an open game with a combined total around 3.8, supporting a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals (73%) and both teams finding the net (72%). The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, but fans should keep in mind these projections are statistical estimates—please gamble responsibly (18+).

Generated by our AI writer. Informational only — 18+, gamble responsibly.

Match predictions

Expected goals

1.64 – 2.15

Most likely score

1-1

9% likely

Over/Under 2.5

Over 73%

Under 27%

Both teams to score

Yes 72%

No 28%

Value bet vs odds

18+ to see value

Unlock expected goals, correct score, BTTS, over/under, alternative markets and AI value bets.

Go Premium

Unlock advanced player analysis

You don't own any SwiftSquad cards yet, so the extra ratings, form & deep-stat breakdowns for these players are locked. Create a free account and open a pack to collect players — every card you own unlocks its advanced analysis across the site. New free packs daily.

Head-to-head (recent meetings)

Jan 2023 Auxerre 0–2 Montpellier
Aug 2022 Montpellier 1–2 Auxerre